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Thanks, Briz, but I need someone to put it in a nutshell .....why and how does a Pacific ocean (not Atlantic) phenomenon affect us here in the Canaries?
These phenomena are characteristic of all the oceans, but the narrower Atlantic and Indian oceans are influenced more by the adjacent land masses than the Pacific. Most of the data available is on the Pacific (by USA) but there is still lots to be found on the Atlantic. One thing to remember is that heating and cooling of oceans is often 200 years behind the land masses and the La Nina and El Nino are short term (2-7 years) phenomena OSIB
it's wonderful you could spend forever reading about this
It's a bit simplistic and there's lots more to read but I preume you get the drift. You can't play in the Pacific without causing waves in the Atlantic, i've burnt the dinner (only for me Jan's is OK) so going for the oven chips and Steak now
Data below shows things are hinging around June/July
Synopsis: A transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during June-
July 2008.
La Niña continued to weaken during May 2008, reflected mainly by changes in sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Negative SST anomalies in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific weakened, while the region of positive SST anomalies
increased in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SSTs in the westernmost Niño-4 and
Niño-3.4 regions are near 0.5°C below-average, and were close to 0.5°C above-average in the
easternmost Niño-3 and Niño 1+2 regions by the end of the month (Fig. 2).
Positive oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the
ocean; Fig. 3) reflected the continuation of above-average temperatures at thermocline depth in
the west-central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). However, a shallow layer of negative
anomalies (between the surface and 100m in the central Pacific) continue to be sufficiently cool
to maintain the below-average SSTs, which support the atmospheric anomalies associated with
La Niña. Enhanced low-level easterly winds and upper-level westerly winds continued across the
central equatorial Pacific, while convection remained suppressed throughout the central
equatorial Pacific and enhanced over the far western Pacific. Collectively, these atmospheric and
oceanic conditions continue to indicate an ongoing, but gradually weakening, La Niña.
A majority of the recent dynamical and statistical SST forecasts for the Niño 3.4 region
indicate a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during June - August 2008 (Fig. 5). During the
second half of the year, the majority of models reflect ENSO-neutral conditions (−0.5 to 0.5 in
the Niño-3.4 region). However, there is considerable uncertainty during this period as some
models suggest the possible development of El Niño while others show a re-development of La
Niña. Based on current atmospheric and oceanic conditions and recent trends,
Last edited by Briz; 19-06-08 at 14:27.
Reason: Burn't dinner
The Following User Says Thank You to Briz For This Useful Post:
hot in subida a taucho today with the perfect breeze for sunbathing. i went to shower at about 4 pm as it was cloudy then... and as i came out of the shower, the sun came out again - grrr! (but i got enough of a tan for today)
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